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Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand: A Risk Management Perspective (BestMasters)
by Kevin BerkThe master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.
Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach (The Wiley Finance Series #403)
by Rafal WeronThis book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty: Proceedings of the Second U.S.-Australia Workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9–12, 1985 (Lecture Notes in Biomathematics #72)
by Thomas L. Vincent Yosef Cohen Walter J. Grantham Geoffrey P. Kirkwood Jan M. SkowronskiThis vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U. S. -Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U. S. -Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper.
Modeling and Optimization: MOPTA, Bethlehem, PA, USA, August 2014 Selected Contributions (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics #147)
by Boris Defourny Tamás TerlakyThis volume contains a selection of contributions that were presented at the Modeling and Optimization: Theory and Applications Conference (MOPTA) held at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, USA on August 13-15, 2014. The conference brought together a diverse group of researchers and practitioners, working on both theoretical and practical aspects of continuous or discrete optimization. Topics presented included algorithms for solving convex, network, mixed-integer, nonlinear, and global optimization problems, and addressed the application of deterministic and stochastic optimization techniques in energy, finance, logistics, analytics, healthcare, and other important fields. The contributions contained in this volume represent a sample of these topics and applications and illustrate the broad diversity of ideas discussed at the meeting.
Modeling and Optimization: Selected Contributions from the MOPTA 2012 Conference (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics #62)
by Luis F. Zuluaga and Tamás TerlakyThis volume contains a selection of contributions that were presented at the Modeling and Optimization: Theory and Applications Conference (MOPTA) held at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, USA on July 30-August 1, 2012. The conference brought together a diverse group of researchers and practitioners, working on both theoretical and practical aspects of continuous or discrete optimization. Topics presented included algorithms for solving convex, network, mixed-integer, nonlinear, and global optimization problems, and addressed the application of optimization techniques in finance, logistics, health, and other important fields. The contributions contained in this volume represent a sample of these topics and applications and illustrate the broad diversity of ideas discussed at the meeting.
Modeling and Optimization: MOPTA, Bethlehem, PA, USA, August 2016 Selected Contributions (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics #213)
by Martin Takáč Tamás TerlakyThis volume contains a selection of contributions that were presented at the Modeling and Optimization: Theory and Applications Conference (MOPTA) held at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, USA on August 17-19, 2016. The conference brought together a diverse group of researchers and practitioners, working on both theoretical and practical aspects of continuous or discrete optimization. Topics presented included algorithms for solving convex, network, mixed-integer, nonlinear, and global optimization problems, and addressed the application of deterministic and stochastic optimization techniques in energy, finance, logistics, analytics, health, and other important fields. The contributions contained in this volume represent a sample of these topics and applications and illustrate the broad diversity of ideas discussed at the meeting.
Modeling and Optimization: MOPTA, Bethlehem, PA, USA, August 2017, Selected Contributions (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics #279)
by Tamás Terlaky János D. PintérThis book features a selection of contributions that were presented at the Modeling and Optimization: Theory and Applications Conference (MOPTA) held at Lehigh University in B ethlehem, Pennsylvania, USA between August 16-18, 2017. The conference brought together a diverse group of researchers and practitioners working on both theoretical and practical aspects of continuous and discrete optimization. Topics covered include algorithms for solving convex, network, mixed-integer, nonlinear, and global optimization problems, and address the application of deterministic andstochastic optimization techniques in energy, finance, logistics, analytics, health, and other important fields. The selected contributions in this book illustrate the broad diversity of ideas discussed at the meeting.
Modeling and Optimization in Green Logistics
by Houda Derbel Bassem Jarboui Patrick SiarryThis book presents recent work that analyzes general issues of green logistics and smart cities. The contributed chapters consider operating models with important ecological, economic, and social objectives.The content will be valuable for researchers and postgraduate students in computer science, information technology, industrial engineering, and applied mathematics.
Modeling and Optimization in Space Engineering: State of the Art and New Challenges (Springer Optimization and Its Applications #144)
by Giorgio Fasano János D. PintérThis book presents advanced case studies that address a range of important issues arising in space engineering. An overview of challenging operational scenarios is presented, with an in-depth exposition of related mathematical modeling, algorithmic and numerical solution aspects. The model development and optimization approaches discussed in the book can be extended also towards other application areas. The topics discussed illustrate current research trends and challenges in space engineering as summarized by the following list: • Next Generation Gravity Missions • Continuous-Thrust Trajectories by Evolutionary Neurocontrol • Nonparametric Importance Sampling for Launcher Stage Fallout • Dynamic System Control Dispatch • Optimal Launch Date of Interplanetary Missions • Optimal Topological Design • Evidence-Based Robust Optimization • Interplanetary Trajectory Design by Machine Learning • Real-Time Optimal Control • Optimal Finite Thrust Orbital Transfers • Planning and Scheduling of Multiple Satellite Missions • Trajectory Performance Analysis • Ascent Trajectory and Guidance Optimization • Small Satellite Attitude Determination and Control • Optimized Packings in Space Engineering • Time-Optimal Transfers of All-Electric GEO Satellites Researchers working on space engineering applications will find this work a valuable, practical source of information. Academics, graduate and post-graduate students working in aerospace, engineering, applied mathematics, operations research, and optimal control will find useful information regarding model development and solution techniques, in conjunction with real-world applications.
Modeling and Optimization in Space Engineering: New Concepts and Approaches (Springer Optimization and Its Applications #200)
by Giorgio Fasano János D. PintérThis volume consists of 14 contributed chapters written by leading experts, offering in-depth discussions of the mathematical modeling and algorithmic aspects for tackling a range of space engineering applications. This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners working in the field of space engineering. Since it offers an in-depth exposition of the mathematical modelling, algorithmic and numerical solution aspects of the topics covered, the book will also be useful to aerospace engineering graduates and post-graduate students who wish to expand their knowledge by studying real-world applications and challenges that they will encounter in their profession. Readers will obtain a broad overview of some of the most challenging space engineering operational scenarios of today and tomorrow: this will be useful for managers in the aerospace field, as well as in other industrial sectors. The contributed chapters are mainly focused on space engineering practice. Researchers and practitioners in mathematical systems modelling, operations research, optimization, and optimal control will also benefit from the case studies presented in this book. The model development and optimization approaches discussed can be extended towards other application areas that are not directly related to space engineering. Therefore, the book can be a useful reference to assist in the development of new modelling and optimization applications.
Modeling and Optimization of the Lifetime of Technologies (Applied Optimization #4)
by N.V. Hritonenko Yuri P. YatsenkoModern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies into economics. The replacement and renova tion of technologies in industrial environments undergoing technical change is clearly one of the key aspects of economic development. The mathematical modeling of evolutionary economics under technical change (TC) has been rigorously considered by many authors during last decades. There is a wide variety of economic approaches and models describing different aspects of technical change. Among these are the models of embodied technical progress [19], [35], [70], [129], endogenous growth models [94], [102], the models of technological innovations [31], [32], [41], and others. The perspective self organization evolutionary approach is developed in [20], [38], [122], [123], [124], [126], which unites the aspects of diffusion of new technologies, technological and behavioral diversity of firms, learning mechanisms, age-dependent effects, and other important features of real-life economics. On the whole, an interest in evolutionary economics has brought considerable progress in the description and conceptualization of the sources, characteristics, direction and effects of technical change [125]. However, the modeling and control of technology lifetime under technical change has received rather little attention in mathematical economics in con trary to other aspects of technical progress. The lifetime of technologies has rarely been formally treated as a part of more general mathematical theory of economic dynamics. A problem which is still to be resolved consists in establishing the rational strategies of technologies' replacement under various assumptions on the behavior of technical change.
Modeling and Simulating Complex Business Perceptions: Using Graphical Models and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (Fuzzy Management Methods)
by Zoumpolia DikopoulouFuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) have gained popularity in the scientific community due to their capabilities in modeling and decision making for complex problems.This book presents a novel algorithm called glassoFCM to enable automatic learning of FCM models from data. Specifically, glassoFCM is a combination of two methods, glasso (a technique originated from machine learning) for data modeling and FCM simulation for decision making. The book outlines that glassoFCM elaborates simple, accurate, and more stable models that are easy to interpret and offer meaningful decisions. The research results presented are based on an investigation related to a real-world business intelligence problem to evaluate characteristics that influence employee work readiness.Finally, this book provides readers with a step-by-step guide of the 'fcm' package to execute and visualize their policies and decisions through the FCM simulation process.
Modeling and Simulation Based Analysis in Reliability Engineering (Advanced Research in Reliability and System Assurance Engineering)
by Mangey RamRecent developments in reliability engineering has become the most challenging and demanding area of research. Modeling and Simulation, along with System Reliability Engineering has become a greater issue because of high-tech industrial processes, using more complex systems today. This book gives the latest research advances in the field of modeling and simulation, based on analysis in engineering sciences. Features Focuses on the latest research in modeling and simulation based analysis in reliability engineering. Covers performance evaluation of complex engineering systems Identifies and fills the gaps of knowledge pertaining to engineering applications Provides insights on an international and transnational scale Modeling and Simulation Based Analysis in Reliability Engineering aims at providing a reference for applications of mathematics in engineering, offering a theoretical sound background with adequate case studies, and will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and academics.
Modeling and Simulation Based Analysis in Reliability Engineering (Advanced Research in Reliability and System Assurance Engineering)
by Mangey RamRecent developments in reliability engineering has become the most challenging and demanding area of research. Modeling and Simulation, along with System Reliability Engineering has become a greater issue because of high-tech industrial processes, using more complex systems today. This book gives the latest research advances in the field of modeling and simulation, based on analysis in engineering sciences. Features Focuses on the latest research in modeling and simulation based analysis in reliability engineering. Covers performance evaluation of complex engineering systems Identifies and fills the gaps of knowledge pertaining to engineering applications Provides insights on an international and transnational scale Modeling and Simulation Based Analysis in Reliability Engineering aims at providing a reference for applications of mathematics in engineering, offering a theoretical sound background with adequate case studies, and will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and academics.
Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics, and Management: International Conference, MS 2012, New Rochelle, NY, USA, May 30 - June 1, 2012, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing #115)
by Kurt J. Engemann Anna M. Gil-Lafuente José M. Merigó-LindahlThis book contains the refereed proceedings of the International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics, and Management, MS 2012, held in New Rochelle, NY, USA, in May/June 2012. The event was co-organized by the AMSE Association and Iona College. The 27 full papers in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 78 submissions. In addition to these papers a summary of the plenary presentation given by Ronald R. Yager is also included. The book mainly focuses on the field of intelligent systems and its application to economics and business administration. Some papers have a stronger orientation towards modeling and simulation in these fields.
Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics, and Management: International Conference, MS 2013, Castellón de la Plana, Spain, June 6-7, 2013, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing #145)
by María Ángeles Fernández-Izquierdo María Jesús Muñoz-Torres Raúl LeónThis book contains the refereed proceedings of the International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics, and Management, MS 2013, held in Castellón de la Plana, Spain, in June 2013. The event was co-organized by the AMSE Association and the SoGReS Research Group of the Jaume I University. This edition of the conference paid special attention to modeling and simulation in diverse fields of business management.The 28 full papers in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 65 submissions. They are organized in topical sections on: modeling and simulation in CSR and sustainable development; modeling and simulation in finance and accounting; modeling and simulation in management and marketing; modeling and simulation in economics and politics; knowledge-based expert and decision support systems; and modeling and simulation in engineering.
Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics and Management: International Conference, MS 2016, Teruel, Spain, July 4-5, 2016, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing #254)
by Raúl León María Jesús Muñoz-Torres Jose M. MonevaThis book contains the refereed proceedings of the International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics and Management, MS 2016, held in Teruel, Spain, in July 2016. The event was co-organized by the AMSE Association and the University of Zaragoza through the GESES Research Group, with the support of the SoGReS-MF Research Group from University Jaume I. This edition of the conference paid special attention to modeling and simulation in diverse fields of business management.The 20 papers in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 52 submissions. They are organized in topical sections on modeling and simulation in finance and accounting; modeling and simulation in business management and economy; and engineering and other general applications.
Modeling and Simulation in Industrial Engineering (Management and Industrial Engineering)
by Mangey Ram J. Paulo DavimThis book describes the latest research developments in modeling and simulation in industrial engineering. Topics such as decision and performance analysis and industrial control systems are described. Case studies in industry and services as well as engineering economy and cost estimation are also covered.
Modeling and Simulation in Scilab/Scicos with ScicosLab 4.4
by Stephen L. Campbell Jean-Philippe Chancelier Ramine NikoukhahScilab and its Scicos block diagram graphical editor, with a special emphasis on modeling and simulation tools. The first part is a detailed Scilab tutorial, and the second is dedicated to modeling and simulation of dynamical systems in Scicos. The concepts are illustrated through numerous examples, and all code used in the book is available to the reader.
Modeling and Simulation in Scilab/Scicos with ScicosLab 4.4
by Stephen L. Campbell Jean-Philippe Chancelier Ramine NikoukhahScilab and its Scicos block diagram graphical editor, with a special emphasis on modeling and simulation tools. The first part is a detailed Scilab tutorial, and the second is dedicated to modeling and simulation of dynamical systems in Scicos. The concepts are illustrated through numerous examples, and all code used in the book is available to the reader.
Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures: Analytics, Econometrics, and Numerics (Applied Quantitative Finance)
by Daniel MahoneyCommodity markets present several challenges for quantitative modeling. These include high volatilities, small sample data sets, and physical, operational complexity. In addition, the set of traded products in commodity markets is more limited than in financial or equity markets, making value extraction through trading more difficult. These facts make it very easy for modeling efforts to run into serious problems, as many models are very sensitive to noise and hence can easily fail in practice. Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures is a comprehensive guide to quantitative and statistical approaches that have been successfully employed in support of trading operations, reflecting the author's 17 years of experience as a front-office 'quant'. The major theme of the book is that simpler is usually better, a message that is drawn out through the reality of incomplete markets, small samples, and informational constraints. The necessary mathematical tools for understanding these issues are thoroughly developed, with many techniques (analytical, econometric, and numerical) collected in a single volume for the first time. A particular emphasis is placed on the central role that the underlying market resolution plays in valuation. Examples are provided to illustrate that robust, approximate valuations are to be preferred to overly ambitious attempts at detailed qualitative modeling.
Modeling Applications in the Airline Industry
by Ahmed Abdelghany Khaled AbdelghanyModeling Applications in the Airline Industry explains the different functions and tactics performed by airlines during their planning and operation phases. Each function receives a full explanation of the challenges it brings and a solution methodology is presented, supported by numerical illustrative examples wherever possible. The book also highlights the main limitations of current practice and provides a brief description of future work related to each function. The authors have filtered the rich literature of airline management to include only the research that has actually been adopted by the airlines, giving a genuinely accurate representation of real airline management and its continuing development of solution methodologies. The book consists of 20 chapters divided into 4 sections: - Demand Modeling and Forecasting - Scheduling of Resources - Revenue Management - Irregular Operations Management. The book will be a valuable source or a handbook for individuals seeking a career in airline management. Written by experts with significant working experience within the industry, it offers readers insights to the real practice of operations modelling. In particular the book makes accessible the complexities of the key airline functions and explains the interrelation between them.
Modeling Applications in the Airline Industry
by Ahmed Abdelghany Khaled AbdelghanyModeling Applications in the Airline Industry explains the different functions and tactics performed by airlines during their planning and operation phases. Each function receives a full explanation of the challenges it brings and a solution methodology is presented, supported by numerical illustrative examples wherever possible. The book also highlights the main limitations of current practice and provides a brief description of future work related to each function. The authors have filtered the rich literature of airline management to include only the research that has actually been adopted by the airlines, giving a genuinely accurate representation of real airline management and its continuing development of solution methodologies. The book consists of 20 chapters divided into 4 sections: - Demand Modeling and Forecasting - Scheduling of Resources - Revenue Management - Irregular Operations Management. The book will be a valuable source or a handbook for individuals seeking a career in airline management. Written by experts with significant working experience within the industry, it offers readers insights to the real practice of operations modelling. In particular the book makes accessible the complexities of the key airline functions and explains the interrelation between them.
Modeling Approaches to Natural Convection in Porous Media (SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology)
by Yan Su Jane H. DavidsonThis book provides an overview of the field of flow and heat transfer in porous medium and focuses on presentation of a generalized approach to predict drag and convective heat transfer within porous medium of arbitrary microscopic geometry, including reticulated foams and packed beds. Practical numerical methods to solve natural convection problems in porous media will be presented with illustrative applications for filtrations, thermal storage and solar receivers.
Modeling by Object-Driven Linear Elemental Relations: A User’s Guide for MODLER© (Operations Research/Computer Science Interfaces Series #2)
by H.J. GreenbergModeling by Object-Driven Linear Elemental Relations (MODLER) is a computer language for representing linear programming models, completely separate from instances defined by data realizations. It also includes representations of binary variables and logical constraints, which arise naturally in large-scale planning and operational decision support. The basic input to MODLER is a model file, and its basic output is a matrix file that is in a standard (MPS) format for most optimizers and for ANALYZE and RANDMOD. MODLER can also generate a syntax file for ANALYZE to enable automatic translation of activities and constraints into English for intelligent analysis support. The book is accompanied by a DOS version of MODLER on 3.5 inch diskettes and A Laboratory Manual for Teaching Linear Programming is available upon request.